![]() A primary plan is laid out with a contingency also made ready. And, since we view the market from a probabilistic vantage point, we plot the path that is the most likely and will then provide an alternative.Īvi Gilburt compares this to a general preparing a battle plan. Since the market is fractal in nature, it is this self-similarity that provides us with an anticipated path forward. Remember that we observe the structure of price and that this creates predictable patterns that repeat at all time frames. If you'd like to buy, we need a pullback for a closer zone of support, since price action is too far away from the symmetry setup of $115.57. XOP: Price is below the 200SMA, so you can make a case for the bears if you'd like to short. If you'd like to get countertrend and buy, your risk is defined at $76.70-76.82 or if we go lower off of resistance, the next setup buy zone is $75.40-75.68. XLE: All of the moving averages are on the side of the bears on XLE, so a short off of $80.35-80.92 would be the trend trade. If you would like to short BP, I have a lot of symmetry and retracements that form a cluster setup zone of resistance at $36.41-37.45. However, price is below the 50 SMA and the 5 EMA has fallen below the 13 EMA, so this suggests a bearish trend. Tammy Marshall, The Fibonacci Princess, shares with us how the near term shapes up and gives us specific levels for swing trades in both directions.īP: Price action is above the 200 SMA, so you can make a case for the bulls. I think a number of oil major stocks have a good probability of going up 2x or 3x in price this decade, while paying out 3-5% dividend yields along the way. ![]() While I don't think the management is exceptional, the assets have a wide capital moat, the company is cheap, and actively making use of its cheapness by returning capital to shareholders. The company pays a dividend yield of over 4%, is aggressively buying back inexpensive shares, and has sharply reduced its net debt. ![]() BP trades at a lower valuation than its peers, at under 6x forward earnings. oil majors have, and the market hasn't really liked that. In general, the European oil majors have invested more into non-hydrocarbon energy than U.S. In addition to producing oil and gas, BP is heavily investing in electric charging stations, biofuels, hydrogen fuels, and truck stops with convenience stores and fueling stations. While Exxon Mobil takes a stance that they are an oil and gas company, BP has attempted to take an approach of embracing the energy transition theme in a more diversified way. It has a 0.40% annual expense ratio which is reasonable.Īside from that, BP ( NYSE: BP) is becoming interesting at current levels.īP is one of the least-liked oil majors, partly because of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster (which they have paid tens of billions of dollars over) and partly because BP has gone back and forth a bit on the energy transition topic. Exxon Mobil ( XOM) and Chevron ( CVX) make up a little over a quarter of the fund, followed by the European and Canadian oil majors, and then various other North American producers and pipeline operators. The iShares Global Energy ETF ( IXC) is one of the easiest ways to get diversified long-term exposure to oil stocks. There are all sorts of things that could push oil lower in the next six months or so, but the long-term supply and demand picture remains very attractive. ![]() Recessions can reduce demand for oil around the margins, although the low economic growth rate (PMI below 50, for example) has likely already done a lot of that. The United States continues to draw down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, although the energy secretary said they might begin refilling it in the second half of the year. WTI crude has been chopping along between the high $60s and low $70s a barrel since late last year. Then, the Fibonacci Princess Proclamation, and finally the big picture via the technicals. We will look at the fundamentals first with Lyn Alden. And, when these coalesce into the same conclusion, it makes for high-probability investing and trading. It’s of such great benefit to have research presented from different angles and methodologies. We are absolutely surrounded by some amazing talents from the world of stock analysis. By Levi at StockWaves produced with Avi Gilburt
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